One sunny afternoon, Steady the turtle and Zippy the rabbit were scrolling through social media on their phones.
Zippy (Rabbit): “Hey Steady! Check this out! An investor overseas just posted a video claiming they tripled their money in only one week. Isn’t that amazing?”
Steady (Turtle): “Wow, that is impressive. But… is it really that easy to succeed like that?”
Zippy: “He said he went all in on one stock and hit the jackpot! Maybe I should try it too!”
Steady: “Hmm… Now I really want to hear what Mr. Mog has to say. He always has a good perspective on this kind of stuff.”
🌱 A Visit to Mr. Mog’s Farm
The two friends headed over to a nearby farm to talk to Mr. Mog, their wise mole neighbor who loves investing.
Zippy: “Hi, Mr. Mog! We’ve been seeing tons of short-term investment success stories on social media. Are those actually real?”
Mr. Mog wiped the dirt from his hands and gave them a kind smile.
Mr. Mog: “Ah, that sounds like a classic case of survivorship bias. You only see the winners on social media—never the losers.”
🌍 What Is Survivorship Bias?
Mr. Mog: “Let’s say 10,000 people try short-term investing. Maybe 100 of them succeed. But guess whose stories you’ll see online? Just those 100 lucky folks. The 9,900 who failed? Their stories don’t go viral.”
Zippy: “Wait—so failed investors just don’t show up on social media?”
Mr. Mog: “Exactly. Whether it’s in Japan, the U.S., the U.K., or China—everywhere’s the same. Social media highlights success, and hides failure. That makes it easy to believe anyone can do it.”
📱 The Pitfalls of Social Media and Short-Term Investing
Mr. Mog: “You’ll see posts about U.S. traders doubling their portfolio in a week, or Korean youth getting rich on crypto. But in reality, only a few of them succeed—and most of those either got lucky or really understood the risks.”
Steady: “And I guess those who took big risks and lost everything aren’t exactly rushing to share their stories online.”
Mr. Mog: “Right you are. That’s why it’s dangerous to act based only on what you see on social media.”
🧠 Lessons from Mr. Mog
Mr. Mog: “What I’ve learned is this: Don’t copy success stories blindly. Most experienced investors build their wealth slowly through long-term and diversified investments.”
“Worldwide, there are systems like America’s 401(k), the UK’s ISA, and Canada’s TFSA that help people grow wealth gradually while managing risk. These aren’t flashy, but they’re effective.”
📌 Key Takeaways
- The short-term investment success stories you see online often reflect survivorship bias—only the winners are visible.
- This happens globally, and the vast majority of failures are hidden.
- Investing should be done with a full understanding of risk, and with a long-term mindset that matches your personal pace.
🎓 Quiz Time! Can You Spot the Survivorship Bias?
Q1. What is survivorship bias?
A) Believing everyone can succeed by only looking at successful cases
B) Only focusing on failed investors
C) Not using social media
Q2. Why do we see so many success stories about short-term investing on social media?
A) Because everyone is winning
B) Because only the winners are sharing
C) Because investing is always easy
Q3. Which of the following are examples of long-term investment systems?
A) Only Japan’s NISA
B) U.S. 401(k), U.K. ISA, Canada’s TFSA
C) Simply buying stocks
👉 Answers: Q1 – A, Q2 – B, Q3 – B
🌟 Final Words from Mr. Mog
“Don’t get blinded by flashy success stories. Whether you’re in the U.S. or anywhere else, true investing success comes from understanding risks and making informed decisions. That’s the real first step toward financial growth.”
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